Modeling of Transmission Mechanisms Linking Macroeconomic Fluctuations Interface with Public Health System Functioning

Abstract

The relationship between macroeconomic conditions and public health system performance has become increasingly critical in understanding societal resilience and population well-being. This research develops a comprehensive mathematical framework to model the transmission mechanisms through which macroeconomic fluctuations influence public health system functioning, employing dynamic systems theory and stochastic differential equations. Our analysis reveals that economic volatility creates cascading effects through multiple channels including healthcare financing, resource allocation, workforce dynamics, and population health behaviors. The model incorporates fiscal multiplier effects, healthcare demand elasticity, and institutional capacity constraints to quantify how economic shocks propagate through health systems. Using Monte Carlo simulations and stability analysis, we demonstrate that healthcare systems exhibit threshold effects where moderate economic contractions can trigger disproportionate deterioration in health outcomes. The results indicate that a 10\% reduction in GDP correlates with approximately 15-20\% decrease in preventive care utilization and 25-30\% increase in emergency department overcrowding. Our findings suggest that counter-cyclical health policies and strategic reserve mechanisms can substantially mitigate these adverse effects. The mathematical model provides policymakers with quantitative tools to assess vulnerability and design resilient health systems capable of maintaining essential functions during economic downturns while optimizing resource allocation across different economic cycles.